Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 4.484403 5.296002 6.194534 7.260546 8.488082 9.854551 11.488030
2025-06-22 3.223157 4.303535 5.632013 7.373651 9.583219 12.278203 15.797467
2025-06-29 2.413645 3.583583 5.157015 7.399379 10.478933 14.520632 20.179108
2025-07-06 1.865991 3.043091 4.755032 7.376010 11.224383 16.591628 24.546077
2025-07-13 1.636196 2.888308 4.832346 7.989367 12.882913 20.047785 31.155111
2025-07-20 1.387763 2.639899 4.706434 8.249900 14.020319 22.847056 37.090882
2025-07-27 1.204827 2.455181 4.637040 8.566171 15.252286 25.882245 43.648453
2025-08-03 1.012705 2.208865 4.413239 8.575863 15.964132 28.148789 49.197500
2025-08-10 0.820234 1.916914 4.052052 8.278935 16.099130 29.465680 53.307064
2025-08-17 0.654954 1.640460 3.666866 7.869293 15.964842 30.288005 56.631326
2025-08-24 0.550353 1.469390 3.455832 7.752172 16.333680 31.989446 61.573662
2025-08-31 0.468514 1.330588 3.285246 7.684951 16.777485 33.847700 66.925789
2025-09-07 0.432154 1.296692 3.341545 8.107873 18.253838 37.778334 76.436840
2025-09-14 0.375206 1.196780 3.232728 8.163055 19.000474 40.418636 83.818604
2025-09-21 0.323853 1.098472 3.109371 8.166350 19.637513 42.903999 91.117123
2025-09-28 0.278534 1.004755 2.979063 8.131953 20.185490 45.256441 98.344377
2025-10-05 0.270628 1.021693 3.133856 8.797694 22.344198 51.035288 112.736956
2025-10-12 0.246901 0.982468 3.133025 9.080431 23.667999 55.201385 124.205519
2025-10-19 0.227910 0.953726 3.155578 9.424564 25.168256 59.855144 136.996701
2025-10-26 0.200045 0.886126 3.055414 9.434955 25.880275 62.880520 146.637693
2025-11-02 0.166583 0.787161 2.842962 9.111402 25.745240 64.044842 152.446453
2025-11-09 0.135495 0.685852 2.600863 8.664920 25.247221 64.349122 156.422577
2025-11-16 0.116392 0.626127 2.477836 8.537227 25.541954 66.468419 164.495935